In this second of a two-part series I’m publishing today, I examine the strengths and weaknesses of the NDC and its presidential candidate in tomorrow’s election. I will then give the general verdict on the probability of victory for the NPP. (I have published a similar one on Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and the NPP).

Strengths of John Mahama and the NDC:

1. The NPP’s Terrible Record: John Mahama’s biggest campaigner for the 2024 election has been President Akufo-Addo and the NPP administration. The government has, even in the months leading to the election, behaved as if nothing was at stake. The corruption, mismanagement and impunity will work in favour of John Mahama and the NDC in tomorrow’s election. Having lost two previous elections—one as sitting president—not much has changed in the John Mahama setup. But the Akufo-Addo administration makes him look like a saint.

2. Better Record: In 2016, I said in an article that if governance was all about borrowing money and building infrastructure and boasting about it, any idiot could govern Ghana. When Akufo-Addo became president, Ghana got logged out of the borrowing account, and the government reluctantly made another unholy pilgrimage to the IMF for support. Unlike the Mahama-era economic crisis, the Akufo-Addo-era mess was felt in private pockets and bank accounts. Bondholders and investors in private securities lost money, and some investors with Databank can still not access their funds unless they’re prepared to forfeit a chunk of their investment. Pensioners picketed for months at the Ministry of Finance for their locked-up funds. The economy Mahama was accused of mismanaging got worse under his successor. Amid the mess, there was an obscene arrangement that allowed a company owned by the Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, to benefit from the borrowing Ghana made. In the area of corruption, the Akufo-Addo administration performed worse than Mahama’s. The democratic institutions have been systematically targeted and weakened in this administration.

So, even though Mahama did not leave a glamorous legacy, his successor outdid himself in an unprecedented race to the bottom, which will inure to Mahama’s advantage in tomorrow’s election.

3. Tolerance: Intolerance has been a significant charge against the Akufo-Addo administration. Ghana’s ranking on the Press Freedom Index fell sharply under Akufo-Addo, a president alleged to be a human rights defender. The recent arrests and detention of protestors and other high-handed actions of the government remind many of the civic space of the Mahama era. That is a strength the NDC leader has leveraged in his campaign.

4. General Clamour for Change: In Ghana, opposition parties don’t win elections. The incumbents lose them. And that is true for this election. After eight suffocating years of the NPP, there is a general clamour for respite. John Mahama and the NDC are not seen as the transformational force Ghana needs now, but they are the viable alternative. The NDC remains the lesser of two plagues.

5. Hope for Accountability: Another consideration that works for Mahama in the 2024 campaign is the hope among some concerned electorate that his victory will help Ghana exact accountability from the Akufo-Addo administration.

6. The Benefit of Trend: This trend, as I stated in the other write-up on Bawumia, will benefit the NDC. Since 1992, no political party has gone past eight years in office. And this administration has not done what it takes to break this trend. Besides, no entrant to the presidential race since 1992 has gone on to win the election at his first attempt under normal circumstances. Kufuor lost in 1996 before winning in 2000. Atta Mills lost in 2000 and 2004 before winning in 2008. Akufo-Addo lost in 2008 and 2012 before winning in 2016. The outliers have been Rawlings, who was already a larger-than-life military ruler before he contested the 1992 election, and John Mahama, who campaigned in a funeral cloth after the death of sitting President Mills garnered sympathy for the NDC in the 2012 election. If these trends are anything to go by, Mahama and the NDC will win in 2024.

Odds Against Mahama

1. The Same Old Mahama: John Mahama is contesting the presidency for the fourth consecutive time, the longest run for a “winnable” candidate in the Fourth Republic. In 2012, he was fresh in the race, having served as vice president to President Atta Mills. In 2016, he lost because of the ills of his government. Akufo-Addo’s mess makes the Mahama administration look good. However, as I explained to a Facebook follower yesterday, your old domestic help who stole 10,000 cedis from you doesn’t necessarily become a wanted employee because his replacement stole 100,000 cedis. The people who served with Mahama and infuriated voters are still with him. He is undoubtedly the most market and marketable NDC candidate, but he tows a trailer full of baggage.

2. Poor Campaign: When you’re an opposition party, your resources are limited. Mr. Mahama and the NDC cannot match the NPP in the distribution of goodies, but the NDC could have done better in this election. The NDC looked disorganized and allowed the NPP to dictate the pace despite its lousy record. Bawumia and the NPP have run away from the economy. However, I’m unconvinced about the NDC’s so-called 24-hour economy, which is already happening in private and public entities that require different shifts. The NDC also failed to take advantage of the numerous NPP scandals. If a tenth of what we have witnessed under the NPP in these eight years had happened under the NDC, the NDC would not have been able to campaign in this election. Even amid the untold hardship, the millions of cash in ministers’ rooms did not feature in the NDC’s campaign. The woes of the opposition party were compounded by the generals jostling for positions and recognition before the victory. They are like hunting dogs fighting for the meat even before they catch the antelope.

3. Fighting Against State Machinery: The NDC believes—and that belief may be well-grounded—the Electoral Commission, the judiciary and the state security are tilting in favour of the governing party. Fighting against the incumbent is a tough battle, but vigilance can stop the potential abuses from significantly altering the wishes of the people.

Despite these weaknesses, this election favours the NDC. It will take a miracle for the NPP to win after what Ghanaians have endured, especially in these last four years. The NPP’s base, predominantly businessmen and women, are not insulated from the economic hardship of this era.

What Would a John Mahama and NDC Victory Mean?

For the conclusion, let me quote from Page 377 of my book, “The President Ghana Never Got.”

“Some have also argued that the alternative is no better. They are right. The worst tragedy of Ghana’s democracy is that the repulsive John Mahama of 2016 has become very attractive in 2024 without

having to do anything. In the political race to the bottom that has increased in intensity in recent times, Mahama’s popularity with voters stems from the unimaginable depths Akufo-Addo has sunk. John Mahama has only four years if he wins. Without an eye on the next election, he would not need to compromise on critical decisions to appease certain constituencies. If he wants to leave a strong legacy, this places him in the position to be able to make bold and tangible changes.

“This also presents a downside to his re-election for only one term, having served one term before losing in 2016. Many people around John Mahama have their political umbilical cords tied to him. If Mahama leaves the scene and even if the NDC wins the next election, they have no future in politics. Such characters—especially those who have no profession aside from waiting every eight years to get into government and secure themselves for the next dry season of political opposition—are deadly vampires to our nation’s resources.

"They will loot not only to secure themselves for the next eight years but for a lifetime, knowing that they will retire with President Mahama. Those with unbridled ambitions will use the Mahama administration to build or strengthen their war chests for future campaigns. The John Mahama we know has not shown the strength of character to rein in such characters should he win the next election. Even before the NDC is handed power, they have started jostling and shoving one another and sharing positions that do not yet exist. The next Mahama presidency could, therefore, be worse than his first term. The only record he may not beat is that of Akufo-Addo.”

You can also read “If Bawumia Wins Tomorrow’s Election” on pages.